As millions of consumers worldwide took advantage of deals offered between 28 November (US Thanksgiving) and 2 December (Cyber Monday) – a time broadly known as ‘Black Friday’ across Africa – a new analysis from TransUnion studied retail Digital Fraud during that period. The analysis determined that retail suspected Digital Fraud rates during that time increased year-over-year (YoY) for attempted transactions where the consumer was in Botswana and Namibia, but decreased in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.
The analysis reviewed attempted ecommerce transactions from across the globe and found that 4.6% worldwide were suspected to be Digital Fraud over the same period. Based on proprietary insights from TransUnion’s global intelligence network, TransUnion found that the global suspected Digital Fraud rate was down from 6.0% during the same period in 2023.
The study determined that the average volume of suspected Digital Fraud attempts on any given day during that holiday period globally was 30.2% lower than the same period in 2023 and 5.9% lower than during the rest of the year (1 January 2024 to 27 November 2024).
The Percentage of Suspected Ecommerce Fraud during Black Friday season vs. Overall
| Location | Black Friday season 2024(28 November to 2 December) | All 2024 prior to 28 November | Black Friday season 2023 (23 November to 1 December) | All2023 prior to 23 November | Black Friday season 2022 (24 to 28 November | All2022 prior to 24 November |
| Botswana | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Kenya | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| Namibia | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% |
| Rwanda | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| South Africa | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% |
| Zambia | 4.5% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Globally | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.0 % | 12.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% |
Source: TransUnion TruValidate
“Across Africa, we have observed that Black Friday shopping has extended beyond the original five-day period, with retailers promoting sales throughout the entire month of November. We anticipate that the general lengthening of the holiday shopping season were factors in the decline in suspected Digital Fraud during the time under analysis compared to the rest of the year for most Africa countries,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director for solutions at TransUnion Africa. “For online retailers, this speaks to the need to maintain diligence year-round. For the remainder of this holiday shopping season, and beyond, online retailers must continue to implement tools that maintain a friction-right experience, wherein both business and consumer is protected without major disruption.”
The greatest fraud disruptions globally over the analysed period occurred on Thursday, 28 November with 5.3% of all attempted digital retail transactions on that day suspected to be Digital Fraud. The analysis also revealed the retail suspected Digital Fraud rate for each day in the analysed shopping period for attempted transactions where the consumer was in each of the six African countries studied, and highlighted the day on which the most suspected Digital Fraud took place.
The Suspected Ecommerce Fraud Rate Varies for Each Day of the 2024 Holiday Shopping Weekend
| Day | Botswana | Kenya | Namibia | Rwanda | South Africa | Zambia | Globally |
| Thursday, 28 November | 2.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| Friday, 29 November | 6.7% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| Saturday, 30 November | 1.9% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
| Sunday, 1 December | 3.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Monday, 2 December | 4.3% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
Source: TransUnion TruValidate
As part of this analysis, TransUnion also determined the top signals indicating risk of fraudulent ecommerce transactions during the holiday shopping season globally. This year, unusually high transaction volume from a single device and devices being newly associated with an account were among the leading indicators for potential fraud attempts.
“This international shopping period is always hugely impactful to retailers’ bottom lines, and our recent Consumer Pulse Study that consumers may be particularly eager to buy during this holiday shopping season,” said Reddy. “It’s as important as ever for retailers to equip themselves with the tools they need to detect fraud early. These tools can help minimise fraudulent transactions while at the same time protecting legitimate transactions. Retailers should seek to implement holistic fraud solutions that can verify customer identity and authenticity as early as possible during a transaction.”
Consumers and businesses can take steps to prevent fraudulent activity:
For consumers:
- Verify website security: Ensure that the websites you shop from use secure protocols (look for “https” in the URL).
- Be sceptical of unrealistic deals: Bad actors often lure shoppers with “too good to be true” discounts.
- Use secure payment methods: Utilise verifiable, trusted, and secure payment methods.
- Protect personal information: Share only necessary information during transactions to avoid identity theft.
- Monitor financial statements: Regularly review bank and credit card statements, store cards, etc., for unauthorised activity.
- Beware of phishing scams: Avoid clicking links or downloading attachments from unknown emails or texts.
- Strengthen account security: Use strong, unique passwords and enable multi-factor authentication on critical accounts.
For businesses:
- Train employees: Educate employees on spotting fraud threats.
- Communicate with consumers: Send warnings on fraud tactics and how to verify legitimate vs. illegitimate transactions.
- Leverage real-time fraud verification tools: Monitor transactions closely for anomalies, especially during peak shopping periods.
- Establish clear protocols: Set clear protocols for reporting and responding to fraudulent attempts.
These preventive measures are crucial, especially considering TransUnion’s findings on Digital Fraud. TransUnion came to its conclusions about Digital Fraud based on intelligence from its identity and fraud product suite that helps secure trust across channels and delivers efficient consumer experiences – TransUnion TruValidate. The rate or percentage of suspected Digital Fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation — compared to all transactions assessed. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country and region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide.
Also Read: Kenya Ranked 10th Globally for Suspected Digital Fraud in H1 2024
